Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $425,481$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.43 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{470,745.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 129.9)}}\) (asimptote \(470,745.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,478$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(-4.2 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,835.7}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 164.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34,835.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,480$ on 2020-09-21

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $322,856$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{420,725.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 170.6)}}\) (asimptote \(420,725.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,625$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(230 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,624.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 142.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,624.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56,156$ on 2020-09-21

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $94,051$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.91 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,853.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 125.4)}}\) (asimptote \(89,853.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $853$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(33.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{933.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 127.9)}}\) (asimptote \(933.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,417$ on 2020-09-21

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,471$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,345.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 120.8)}}\) (asimptote \(44,345.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,063$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(93.4 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,224.1}{1 + 10^{-0.476 (t - 106.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,224.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,726$ on 2020-09-21

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $190,929$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,385,015.7}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 363.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,385,015.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,273$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(77.5 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52,876$ on 2020-09-21

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $99,964$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,471.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 133.2)}}\) (asimptote \(99,471.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $585$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(104 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{543.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 74.0)}}\) (asimptote \(543.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,449$ on 2020-09-21

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,752$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.65 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,774.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.7)}}\) (asimptote \(64,774.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $224$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(-3.74 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 120.5)}}\) (asimptote \(217.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,902$ on 2020-09-21

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $330,246$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.77 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{328,965.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 104.4)}}\) (asimptote \(328,965.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,512$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(341 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,595.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 111.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,595.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,235$ on 2020-09-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 98%
Kazakhstan recovered 89%
Vietnam recovered 82%
Sri Lanka recovered 80%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 79%
Azerbaijan recovered 78%
Saudi Arabia recovered 77%
Korea, South recovered 70%
Japan recovered 60%
Maldives recovered 51%
Kuwait recovered 47%
Bangladesh recovered 25%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,606$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{-19} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,241.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 116.5)}}\) (asimptote \(55,241.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(-6.39 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $338$ on 2020-09-21

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $107,374$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,877.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,877.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,671$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(37.1 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,737.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,737.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,639$ on 2020-09-21

Vietnam⮸

Population $97,338,579$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,068$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(133 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-08-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(18.7 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 7.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-09-21

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,299$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.86 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,174.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 83.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,174.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(9.17 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 9.7)}}\) (asimptote \(11.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $186$ on 2020-09-21